novelAbuy #476 - Prepare for a rainy day
#476 - Prepare for a rainy day
Both the aviation and railway industries in the main world had paid a lot in tuition and taken many detours. Back then, the prices of many imported technology components for high-speed rail were basically sky-high. After 2000, a simple fastener, priced at over 300 Eastern Continent currency with profit, needed to be imported for over 100 euros, which was almost 1000 Eastern Continent currency. That meant it was at least two or three times more expensive.
Back in the 1980s, the main world imported 150 8K electric locomotives (8-axle thyristor electric locomotives) at $2 million per locomotive head. That was in the 80s! Our own domestically produced electric locomotive heads cost around just over 1 million. You need to know that in that era, our per capita GDP was only over 1100 yuan, and the total annual import amount was $43.2 billion. $300 million was already a huge deal for a single contract. The price we paid was considerable.
In the world of '亮剑' (Bright Sword), with a visionary technology leader like Ren Zhong, it's impossible to fall into the same pit twice. Currently, in the aviation and railway sectors of Eastern Continent, Ren Zhong has preemptively introduced the Spey engine, BAC1-11 aircraft, and E5 'dog head' diesel locomotive from the main world. It can be said that the foundations of aviation and railways have been laid somewhat ahead of time. Even without the cooperation of foreign companies, there is a very strong starting point in these two foundations.
Moreover, the domestic aviation and railway market development in Eastern Continent is also one of the most powerful in the Bright Sword world.
Relying on such conditions, whether the European powers cooperate or not, it cannot stop Eastern Continent's path forward. At most, the research and development time will be longer.
Of course, if both parties can cooperate in depth, it will be a win-win for both sides. What is weakened is only the relative strength of the rogue Eagle.
For the European Continent that has risen from the ruins, they are more willing to see such a situation. In addition to the two poles, there are also a third and fourth pole. With the balance of multiple forces, everyone's interests can be better guaranteed.
Under Ren Zhong's suggestion, the specifications of most of Eastern Continent's railway network are built according to the 120 km/h standard roadbed in the main world. In terms of gradient, curvature, and roadbed strength, the difference between a 120 km/h railway and a 160 km/h railway is not too great. Therefore, in the construction of 160 km/h rapid railways in the Eastern Continent's plains, the modification of the existing road network is relatively small, and it can meet the requirements with reinforcement on the basis of a smaller cost.
However, the load-bearing capacity, gradient, and curvature of high-speed railways all need to be recalculated. Considering the current stage of technological development, the 200 km/h high-speed railway must be compatible with the future 250 km/h railway. Therefore, the roadbed aspect is almost the same construction standard for both. Ren Zhong can directly transplant the performance index requirements for high-speed railway road network construction from the main world, reducing the investment and time for road network research in the Bright Sword world.
But this is not an easy task. After all, the technical route of high-speed railways is basically all electrified. For railways that currently have no electrification construction at all, the huge change that follows is a complete system of electrified railways.
Currently, Eastern Continent uses two technical routes domestically: diesel locomotives and steam locomotives. Neither requires the deployment of electrified power transmission lines along the railway. In the initial construction phase, this naturally facilitates a lot, not to mention that the cost is also reduced a lot.
For steam locomotives and diesel locomotives, such railways are completely sufficient.
However, future electrified high-speed railways and other railways cannot meet the requirements. Therefore, for high-speed railways, the future electrification transformation of the road network is a huge supporting project. Not only the layout of the railway, but also the layout support of the power grid must be considered in the future, and the operation and maintenance of the electrified railway network is also different from the operation and maintenance of ordinary railway networks with steam locomotives and diesel locomotives.
Which sections of the high-speed railway construction need to be transformed in the future, according to what specifications should they be transformed, power grid support systems, and electrified railway operation and maintenance are all issues that need to be realistically studied.
In this regard, Ren Zhong can provide ready-made railway layout route maps from the main world, but it is difficult to explain clearly why it is designed this way, and the adaptability after facing changes in the Bright Sword world.
After all, this involves many technical issues. First of all, in terms of line design, the population density and economic development center of the Bright Sword world are very different from the main world. The turnover of freight and passenger logistics, future development trends, and other aspects must be dynamically studied.
Looking at it now, the economic development of the Bright Sword world is very different from the main world in the same historical time and space.
The development speed of Jin-Sui industry and energy is very fast. The Zhengtai Line and Tongpu Line have strong heavy-load demands. Even if the railway construction conditions are poor, they must be built into 10,000-ton heavy-load freight railways to achieve transportation infrastructure support for the development of Jin-Sui.
Another key direction is the Jingfeng Line and Jingha Line. Here, there is the largest industrial cluster in Eastern Continent, and the freight demand is also very large. Moreover, in this world, Eastern Continent is not facing the urgent need for third-line construction, and the industrial base that has developed in the north will not undergo any major changes.
However, Ren Zhong is very clear that with the development of the times, based on climate change and the convenience of foreign trade transportation, the economic development of Eastern Continent will still shift south in the future. The densely populated and economically dense areas will basically be in the eastern coastal areas.
The Jinghu Line, Jingguang Line, Longhai Line, and Huhan Line are the main lines with the largest transport capacity in the future.
It's just that it hasn't been fully revealed yet. In the visible present, most of Eastern Continent's industrial base is in the northern region. It is still difficult to theoretically demonstrate this point. After all, with decades of changes, ordinary people can't see that far.
Therefore, in these aspects, Ren Zhong cannot operate according to these current plans. The rapid railway trunk lines and heavy-load railway trunk lines must be started after Ren Zhong confirms them.
In these aspects, Ren Zhong must be somewhat arbitrary and autocratic. The real large traffic flow trunk line sections must be designed as high-speed railways according to Ren Zhong's ideas, in order to cope with the needs of large-scale domestic personnel flow and material flow in the future.
In this way, even if there are no conditions to build such a high-standard high-speed rail network in railway construction, aspects such as land acquisition, route passing stations, and bridge and tunnel construction must be reserved according to the high-standard high-speed rail route, at least the land reserve to support future double-line construction is required.
After all, it is too difficult to improve these things in the later stage, especially demolition and resettlement. Now people like to build along the railway line, and the longer the time, the more residents will gather on both sides of the railway.
If we take advantage of the fact that it hasn't yet taken shape and make plans in advance to handle the necessary land space ahead of time, it won't add much cost from the current perspective. In the future, the overall expenditure will be much less than tearing down and rebuilding. The current land acquisition costs are too cheap compared to the main world. In addition, worker wages are also relatively low, so the increased costs for general bridge, tunnel, and roadbed construction are actually not that much.
In the future, based on this foundation, through double-track construction, electrification upgrades, plus track replacement and further strengthening of the roadbed, we can basically meet the needs of high-speed rail construction at 200 kilometers per hour to 250 kilometers per hour. For Ren Zhong, this is the most ideal state of planning. We can gradually evolve to a true high-speed rail era with the smallest cost through overall planning.
In order to have stronger persuasiveness at the technical level, Ren Zhong established a population prediction model and an economic prediction model. After using some historical data from the main world for regression, he conducted population and economic predictions for provincial-level regions. Although this still needs further improvement technically, relying on the regressed data set, Ren Zhong's model is almost 80% accurate in predicting future development trends.
In addition, in terms of education, relying on Ren Zhong's development plan of 100 key universities, 300 ordinary universities, and 500 vocational and technical colleges, each provincial-level region will basically build at least one key university, 2-3 ordinary universities, and 5-6 vocational and technical colleges for every 10 million people, ensuring that at least 10 million of the future 15 million new population are high-quality people with higher education.
This is the only way to support the high-quality development plan of the entire Dongda in the future.
Of course, this grand plan cannot be accomplished overnight. The education plan is also implemented in stages over 6 to 8 five-year plans.
Starting from these indicators, simulate and calculate the future development situation. According to the adjusted model prediction, the population and economy of the southeast and southwest will basically account for most of Dongda, at least 60% or more, while the land area is less than 30%. In particular, the ten most economically developed provinces are predicted to account for 10% of Dongda's area, but the population and economy will each account for more than 50% of Dongda!
Obviously, the economic and population distribution of various regions in the future will be extremely unbalanced.
Therefore, considering the coverage and complementary relationship between the highway network and the railway network, the designed and planned intercity 200 km/h railway lines will undoubtedly be realized first in these economically developed areas.
In this regard, according to the experience of the main world and the simulation results with considerable inclination, Ren Zhong took the lead in proposing the Pearl River Delta Intercity Circle, the Yangtze River Delta Intercity Circle, the Qilu-Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Intercity Circle, the Chengdu-Chongqing Intercity Circle, and the Northeast Intercity Circle and other local high-speed rail intercity railway network ideas in the Bright Sword world.
Of course, after this concept was launched, it immediately stirred up a huge wave like a boulder thrown into the water.
This goal seems too grand now, as it involves tens of thousands of kilometers of high-speed rail construction planning.
For the current Bright Sword world, these are all incredible things.
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Now, even the most developed countries dare not imagine how wonderful the scene would be if they were all connected by high-speed rail.
If there is an opportunity to realize this, everyone will give priority to the western region of Europe, where economic development and population transportation conditions give them the strength and inherent driving force.
"Dean Ren's idea is too amazing. According to his vision, we will build 50,000 kilometers of high-speed rail in the future. According to the current investment, the cost of high-speed rail construction per kilometer will be more than 2 million, which is more than 3 times higher than ordinary railways. The total cost is as high as 100 billion! And our total fiscal revenue has only exceeded 100 billion for a few years. Such a huge investment is unimaginable for Dongda?" Some experts directly denied the feasibility of Ren Zhong's concept from the perspective of construction costs.
"Our current railway transportation of 80 kilometers per hour to 120 kilometers per hour is already very strong. It is also a very advanced railway network in the world. There is no need to start a new stove to build high-speed rail. A few hours more or a few hours less does not make much sense to everyone. Developing high-speed rail construction is suspected of repeated construction." Some people directly expressed their disagreement.
"Safety, faster speed, that means it's harder to control. A 200 km/h railway is simply unimaginable for the current railway safety facilities. There is no ability to guarantee basic safety."
Everyone's suggestions and opinions emerged one after another, but the more unified opinion was that most people were not optimistic about this high-speed rail and line plan.
The public opinion was fierce, and Chief of Staff Ye had to come to Ren Zhong to ask for advice.
"Old Ren, the railway planning is causing a lot of backlash. How can we adjust this to convince everyone? We need a reasonable reason."
Chief of Staff Ye said with a wry smile.
"Our railway planning is divided into three types: main lines, intercity lines, and branch lines. The main lines open up long-distance connections between different city clusters, and will develop high-speed express lines of 250 km/h to 350 km/h in the future. The intercity lines between city clusters will mainly use 200 km/h lines for connection, with the goal of realizing intercity transportation needs within an hour!" Ren Zhong explained.
"There is no doubt about the future economic development prospects of these city clusters I have proposed. If we don't do overall planning in these areas in advance, we will suffer a big loss in future development."
"In addition to railways, the road network planning for highways should also be put on the agenda for resolution, especially the main highway lines. We must also form a complementary relationship with the railway."
In this regard, Ren Zhong did not expect the people of this era to accept his point of view immediately.
He only hoped that in terms of planning, the railway planning between these city clusters would be confirmed, the lines and related land would be reserved, and a red line would be drawn for future intercity railway construction.
"Old Ren, what you said makes sense. If possible, we do need to plan ahead and do the work in advance." Chief of Staff Ye nodded and said, he understood Ren Zhong's meaning. It was not to build it now to make money for himself, but to use this event to gain benefits.
Chief of Staff Ye's support for Ren Zhong in this regard was still very strong. After Ren Zhong drew the planned lines, he immediately organized an expert group to conduct on-site land exploration and draw a red line. The current land is all planned and distributed in a unified manner. There is no question of compensation for demolition. It is only a matter of re-adjusting the land through which the railway passes to ensure that the affected villagers can get collective redistribution.